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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|